Liberal win is not THAT big a deal

Much has been made about Trudeau taking the Liberals from third place to a majority government in a single election. Never happened before in Canada… blah, blah, blah. 

True. But this election is not the aberration; the last election was. 

Government in Canada has traditionally shifted between the Conservatives and the Liberals, with the NDP enjoying a minor role. There appears to be an immovable base of support for each party around the 30 percent mark. Another 15 percent of voters will move back and forth. 25 percent of voters will NDP or other. 

This election represents return to mean. 

I will predict the next two elections… in 2019 the Liberals will win a majority. In 2023, angry at the arrogant government of old, irrelevant Trudeau, Canadians will elect a majority Conservative government. Yes, there are other possibilities but if you had to gamble your retirement savings, this is the bet you should make.

Advance polls ballyhoo may mean nothing at all

There has been much ballyhooing about the turnout at advance polls.

 

Details: http://bit.ly/1GGVNEw

3.6 million votes have been cast. 71 percent increase over same period last election. If you are Conservative this is proof that the base is mobilizing to ensure that Justin Reefer-Madness Trudeau does not get into power and swear in as PM wearing a niqab. If you are Liberal this is proof that young people are mobilizing to oust Stephen Nice-Hair Harper so that he is not able to turn Canada into a booze-and-drug-free police state. And if you are NDP this is proof that you are still in the race.

It is possible, though, that none of these are true and that the increased number voting at advanced polls has absolutely nothing to do with final total voter turnout.

When I was 18, you were only allowed to vote at advanced polls if you were going to be unable to vote on the election day. This system was in place to ensure that those who wanted to vote could vote. Now, though, the system is designed to make it easy for people to vote. They shouldn’t really be called “advanced polls” they should just be called… “polls.” Thus, it’s possible that the increase does not represent any new voters. Maybe it’s the same old tired group of old people who always vote except they are now voting in advance because it’s convenient, not because they have to.

We will not know until after the election if there is a change in voter turnout.

Election day is Monday. 

If you are Conservative I hope you are able to leave your house and vote, despite the threat to your safety lurking around every corner. 

If you are Liberal I hope you get straight long enough to even remember to vote and that an attack of the munchies doesn’t side track your trip to the polls with a trip to the Quickie for an Eat More bar (the best pothead candy bar by the way ... or so I've read). 

If you’re NDP I hope that you don’t miss the communal bus which will take you all to the polls together in absolute equal discomfort. 

And, if you are a Green I assume you will not be voting because the ballots are made of paper and paper comes from trees – this whole election is just a veiled big oil deforestation project. Get it? Veiled?

After a weekend of reading, I am doubting everything

Like medical students who come to believe they have each affliction they learn of, I have some to believe that I am afflicted with border-less ignorance. I am starting to believe that I have nothing interesting to say and no way to say it if I did. Each book or article I read reveals how little I understand. I have, for instance, massively oversimplified issues around “lone wolf terrorism.” This is the bad news.

 

The good news is that I am starting to understand what I am capable of – what sort of work of journalism, what book, which I might be capable of writing and enjoy writing. This is good because this next year (now eleven months) is the start of one final career. I hope to come away from this with a good understanding of the limits of my skills and a good vision for what I would like to spend the next ten years doing. 

The Gordian knot is frayed. It's not yet undone but it's loosening. I don't think that ignorance is bliss, I think it's motivating.