Much has
been made about Trudeau taking the Liberals from third place to a majority
government in a single election. Never happened before in Canada… blah, blah,
blah.
True. But
this election is not the aberration; the last election was.
Government
in Canada has traditionally shifted between the Conservatives and the Liberals,
with the NDP enjoying a minor role. There appears to be an immovable base of
support for each party around the 30 percent mark. Another 15 percent of voters
will move back and forth. 25 percent of voters will NDP or other.
This
election represents return to mean.
I will
predict the next two elections… in 2019 the Liberals will win a majority. In
2023, angry at the arrogant government of old, irrelevant Trudeau, Canadians
will elect a majority Conservative government. Yes, there are other
possibilities but if you had to gamble your retirement savings, this is the bet
you should make.
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