What will happen in the Alberta Election?

Alberta votes on Tuesday. As of this morning, polls indicate an NDP minority government. As of this morning, a new CBC poll indicates that the surging NDP has a lot to do with NDP leader Rachel Notley who, regardless of who Albertans intend to vote for, is held in high regard and is personally polling way ahead of her two main rivals.

 

My fearless prediction? A PC minority government.

Last election saw the Wildrose Party in the polling lead but in the privacy of the voting booth, Albertans simply could not, in sufficient numbers, vote for them. The PCs won. But, they further undermined their credibility in the months following with the excess of Alison Redford and then the collapse of the Wildrose leadership (which I think reflected badly on the PCs). Things are even stinkier for the PCs now but… well… Albertans really treasure their personal wealth. Albertans, in large numbers, feel a sense of entitlement around the revenue generated by oil. The feel that by the fluke of birth (being born over top of the oil) that they own the oil which is all an artificial distribution of wealth and the subject of another blog. And they know that the NDP will tend to reduce the overall amount of oil revenue as well as redistribute wealth. 

Remember when Greece overspend and had to reduce spending? Despite clearly being unsustainable, this didn’t stop the Greek people from rioting. Alberta is the same, except not, because Alberta is still stinking wealthy. Nonetheless, what you are seeing in these political polls is the equivalent of a Greek riot. People are angrily checking off “NDP” and “Wildrose” (instead of burning police cars). When it comes to the voting booth, though, I think they will calmly vote PC.

A PC minority.

And then Alberta politics will get very interesting. Who will bring down the PC minority? The further right Wildrose or the left NDP because these two cats aren’t going to agree on much.