Twelve murdered in Paris. What is the radical Islam end game?

Yesterday in Paris, two or three shooters murdered twelve people. 

Shouting "Allahu akbar!" as they fired, the men also spoke flawless, unaccented French in the military-style noon-time attack on the weekly newspaper Charlie Hebdo, located near Paris' Bastille monument. The publication's depictions of Islam have drawn condemnation and threats before — it was firebombed in 2011 — although it also satirized other religions and political figures. (CBC)

Hearkening my mind back to the 1980s, contemporary radical Islam was not something I feared. It was not something I considered. It was not something I had ever even heard of. In my navy training we were learning about Russian Oscar class submarines and MiG fighters. These were the perceived threats. But, times change. Movements come and go. Beliefs wax and wane. 
 

What is in store for the world in the coming year? Decade? Century? 

The shooters in Paris actually believe that their actions are righteous and good. This is important. It is very easy to think of attacks like this as lunacy but human history is a diary of acts committed because sane people genuinely hold religious inspired beliefs. The First Crusade saw Christian knights, peasants, and serfs from Western Europe capture Jerusalem in 1099. Certainly some of these Christians were motivated by genuinely held religious inspired belief. Do not dismiss the religious beliefs of radical Islam. They are real and they are not going away anytime soon. The threat of violence from Islamic religious zealots is ongoing and will continue. And, there will always be religious zealots driven to violence.

Radical Islam is a very, very small group. The most recent estimate shows ISIS to have 31,500 fighters. Seems like a lot? Not really. The Canadian Armed Forces, regular and reserve, numbers 119,000. And we are a tiny military by world standards. ISIS fighters, on a worldwide scale, are inconsequential. More importantly, they are a very tiny part Islam. About 23% of the world’s population is Muslim – 1.6 billion adherents. ISIS fighters do not represent the total adherents to radical Islam but it is enough to demonstrate that radical Islam is a very tiny part of the religion. And, mainstream Islam is quite pleasant by comparison. Thus, the actual scope of the threat from radical Islam is small. The threat is much greater in Syria, Iraq, or Israel than in Nunavut. Measured globally, though, the threat is almost inconsequential. The threat to you or me, here in Canada, is almost nothing. 

Will radical Islam continue to grow and expand? Will the entirety of Islam eventually stand opposed to Western democracies? How large will the threat become? How dangerous will our world become?

Human history also shows us that as wealth and education increase, the influence of religious belief on human behavior decreases. Note that this is not a comment on the individual spiritual importance of religious belief. It is simply to say that measured over a population, people are much less likely to die for their God if they are wealthy and educated. And by wealthy I mean “of sufficient means that they do not want to food, shelter, and security.” If people are happy, they don’t want to die for God.

There is, and will continue to be, a momentary upsurge in ISIS recruiting because the short term appeal of radical Islam is stronger than the long term trend. But the centuries long trend has been to diminish the importance of religion in people’s lives and, measured over the global population, this will continue over the next century. 

In the coming year the world is going to see increasing threat from Radical Islam. Lone wolf demented, terrorism inspired individuals and religious zealots will increase. Centrally controlled terrorist attacks around the world will increase. Violence in ISIS dominated areas will increase. The world will get more dangerous and uncertain. Although increasing, if you measure the threat on a global scale, the threat remains very small and mostly localized. This does not mean that our intelligence agencies and police should not take steps to protect us. A small threat is still a threat. But, Canadians do not live with a daily threat of violence and there is none on the horizon. 

In the coming decade the trend of violence and radical Islam is much harder to predict. It will wax and wane. Lots of world events may will affect this. If, for instance, the world plunges back into a Cold War climate of East v. West, Russia v. America and her allies, then Radical Islam will recede remarkably. When two great powers struggle to divide the world, there is no room for two-bit thugs like radical Islam. 

Failing a return to two world police powers, radical Islam is still likely to be on the decrease in twenty years from now as human wealth, education, and standard of living continue to increase. Yes, there is a huge gap between the wealthiest and the poorest. But, the poorest continue to get wealthier and more educated and this diminishes the impact of religion in their lives. It seems likely that ten or twenty years from now the threat of radical Islam will be less than it is today. Will babies being born today be more or less likely to turn towards radical Islam? Less. Wealth and education matter. And this is the battle that free, wealthy nations should be trying to win. Winning minds takes generations. It cannot be won in a month or a year. It cannot be won with CF18s. But, wealth, security, and education do prevail over religious inspired violence and madness. And note that there are not 1.6 billion Muslim minds to be won. The vast, vast majority are there – desiring peace and personal security above jihad and violence. It is only a very small group that are moved by their religious zealousness to wreak violence on the world.

Yes the threat of terrorism is real. Nobody today understands this better than those in Paris. Viewed dispassionately from the perspective of human history, this too shall pass.