How long would a minority government last?

Polls are still extraordinarily close. CTV this morning has NDP 32%, Liberals 32%, and Conservatives 31%. How long will a minority government last?

Not very long.

If the Conservatives win a plurality of seats, Harper will be asked to form government, contrary to claims that the Governor General might ask the NDP and  Libs to form a coalition. Both the Liberals and NDP are claiming to be the force of change. Neither will cooperate with a Harper government. They have said as much. For his part, Harper will be prepared to go back to the tired electorate for practical and emotional reasons – the Conservatives have more money than the other two and it will be difficult to return to minority status after enjoying the power and freedom of majority. 

If the Liberals win a plurality of seats, there will be some room for cooperation with the NDP but it will not last. The Liberals believe themselves to be “the natural governing party of Canada.” They also think the Orange Wave is a temporary event. Wait it out. NDP popularity will shrink and Liberal popularity will rise. Divine right of kings, except there has been this brief interlude in which the aristocratic Conservatives and the peasant NDP have interrupted red-destiny. Cooperation with the NDP will only last until the Liberals believe another election can be won.

If the NDP win a plurality of seats, they will be further intoxicated by the dream – the possibility of a majority NDP government. Like the Liberals, there will be time for cooperation but it will be fleeting. The NDP, too, will last only until they think that they might win a majority. Or, until the Liberals decide to try again and, thus, join with the Conservatives to send us all back to the polls.

But, will it be a minority? There is a real possibility that the polls are not a good reflection of the coming result. Voters don’t want a minority. People may publicly declare their allegiance one way but in the privacy of the cardboard voting booth vote another way because they believe their second choice is a better path out of quagmire of minority government.